- News - Enterprise Computing - Red Hat rethinks news site, portal plans

From: John Conover <>
Subject: - News - Enterprise Computing - Red Hat rethinks news site, portal plans
Date: Mon, 08 May 2000 22:54:39 -0700

Red Hat scraps portal concept ...


BTW, Linux has been hot since about February of 98, (when the HP and
Oracle announcements hit, and the media coverage by Infoworld,) or
about 506 biz days.  To go that far without any negative press in the
general media is quite good-a three sigma scenario, (1 / 503 =
0.001988, and three sigma is 0.001349898, roughly about the same, as a
perspective.) Since the prevailing situation started about March
15'th, the best strategy is to ride it out, (its uncertain whether the
rest of the media will pick up on it, and intervention at this time
could carry a high risk of not working,) for about four and a half
months, and then intervene if the situation is still static. That
would put it at about the end of July. Chances are better than 50/50
that it would be an uphill battle before that. Chances are better than
50/50 that the negative press will continue through May, and abate by
July. (Caveat: MS's Win2K gaining market turf-which is unlikely with
the turmoil within MS these days-and mounting a full court press to
exploit the timing-the Shannon Entropy of Linux's market numbers is
still very formidable, and the persistence, e.g.., inertia, is quite
high; additionally, the folks that were spinning the corresponding
numbers for MS are no longer available to the company, so Ballmer is
graveling his way along in the dark, and may miss the opportunity. But
they are a formidable institution, and should not be underestimated,
with or without B. Arthur, et al.)


John Conover,,

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