ZDNet: News: Rumors and Comment

From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: ZDNet: News: Rumors and Comment
Date: Thu, 01 Jun 2000 14:18:03 -0700

Is Linux a "bubble?" If you consider that the word "Linux" went into
the mainstream, in early 1997, then there is a 58% chance that it is
not. However, if the prevailing market conditions continue through mid
next year, then it is uncertain.

There currently is about a 29% chance, (about a 1 in 3,) of that of
that happening.

A lot depends on a comeback before late July this year, which, if it
did, would mean the current conditions were a negative "bubble," (and
if not, the probabilities rise rapidly that it is a "bubble," becoming
assertive by mid next year.)


BTW, a lot of investors have a sixth sense about such things,
(particularly, the experienced ones.) The recent investment pull back,
(reflected in market capitalization,) was do to asset allocation
issues. Two months ago, an optimal strategy *_COULD_* have had as much
as 40% of assets allocated to Linux related companies. Now, it would
be unwise to have more than 16%, (having more than that, the risks
outweigh the potential gains.)



John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/

Copyright © 2000 John Conover, john@email.johncon.com. All Rights Reserved.
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