From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: (election) Where are the Americans?
And, maybe its a systemic game-theoretic phenomena, (a la Arrow's
so-called Impossibility Theorem/Condorcet/voting paradox,) where a
democratic voting system can yield undemocratic results.
What would happen if the majority of constituents voted
insincerely-and opted for the "lesser of two evils" instead of voting
for the candidate that most closely represented their individual
order/ranking of priorities?
Maybe, in some sense, kind of a massive prisoner's dilemma, where most
opt for a defection strategy, (as opposed to Nash cooperation,) and
end up with their least favorable choice.
That should give a higher probability of a 50/50 aggregate.
But then its always easy to find statistical significance where there
isn't any, too.
John
mason clark writes:
> On 14 Nov 2000 07:56:51 GMT, conover@rahul.net wrote:
>
> >I wonder how it became a toss up?
>
> An excellent question I've been musing over. Two possible
> theories come to mind: (1) a conspiracy of monstrous proportions
> and undoubtedly evil intent.
>
> (2) A two-party system converges to equality because the party
> in power is corrupted by power and the weaker party tries harder.
>
> Perhaps the brief power of Newt Gingrich was an example of
> corrupting power, along with the excesses of the Republican
> House of Representatives (e.g. the impeachment).
>
> Related is my wonder about "What Causes Liberals and Conservatives."
> There is a genetic theory, and perhaps this leads to equal numbers.
>
> The equality of the two this time does rather boggle the mind.
> It may be a sign of maturity and good health in democracy.
>
> Toss a coin, folks. It's the American Way.
>
> Mason
>
> >
> >The odds of 100 million votes coming up almost precisely 50/50,
> >(within several hundred votes, in many places, each with hundreds of
> >Ks or even Ms of ballots,) is astronomical.
> >
> >Those kinds of numbers are hard to justify by coincidence, alone,
> >(although it's always easy to find statistical significance where
> >there isn't any.)
> >
> > John
> >
> >mason clark writes:
> >> Whatever the fine details of the balloting results, the overall
> >> picture is one of an equal division between Gore and Bush.
> >>
> >> The *American* way to handle this, known to schoolboys
> >> and schoolgirls and football referees, is a coin toss.
> >>
> >> Why not have Chief Justice Rehnquist toss a coin between
> >> Gore and Bush, give the ball to the winner, and all good
> >> Americans will cheer as the game begins.
> >>
> >> Toss a coin, Americans. and lighten up: it's a toss-up
> >>
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/