From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: Fwd: [RT] Buffett Forecasts Eight Bad Years
Date: 28 Aug 2001 01:31:56 -0000
How about 1 / sqrt (8) = 35.35%, or about 1 in 3.
So, if you wanted to wager against Mr. Buffett's analysis, you would
bet that he has a 65.65% chance of being wrong.
And, you would bet 2 * 0.6565 - 1 = 29.29% of what you could afford to
loose on the wager.
John
Jeff Haferman writes:
>
> Hmmm, I don't believe an entropic analysis would give a very
> high probability to 8 years of stagnation....
>
>
> >From Businessweek (9/3/2001)
> ---------------------------
> THE ECONOMY
> Buffett Forecasts Eight Bad Years
>
> If you're looking for a rosy economic forecast, don't knock on Warren
> Buffett's door. Seems the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and King of All
> Value Investors has been telling the executives he meets with to
> brace themselves for a long slowdown. Not only is there no turnaround
> in sight this quarter or even this year, according to Buffett, but
> those who've met with him say that he is predicting eight years of
> economic stagnation. Buffett attributes the standstill to a "hangover
> effect" from the excesses of the late 1990s, says one private equity
> investor who has heard the Sage of Omaha's reasoning.
>
> Buffett generally doesn't speak to the press, and questioning his
> headquarters about his economic forecast proved to be no exception.
> But if the 70-year-old business guru is right--as he so often has
> been in the past--his strategy of rational investing for the long
> term is going to look even smarter down the road.
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/