From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: WW1 & WW2 like events to occur somewhere in year 2500 thereabouts; History repeats in blocks theory
Date: Tue, 1 Apr 2003 19:58:17 +0000 (UTC)
Well, I think the complexity-theoretic folks have been kicking such
things around for a couple of decades, or so.
I bet that the "huge pattern blocks" have a frequency distribution of
durations from the mean over time that very closely fits the error
function, erf (1 / sqrt (t)). I bet the deviation of the magnitude of
the "huge pattern blocks" from the mean closely fits sqrt (t), too,
(BSM paradigm for those with an economic tinge to their thinking.)
I bet a log-normal distribution from the median of those two is even
closer-to about a 50% error over 9 orders of magnitude, (the
distribution of the durations of civilizations right down to the 2
minute drill of the equity market tickers, whence we run out of
empirical data-at least so far,) which is a pretty impressive metric
on the self-similarity of things economic.
John
BTW, one could probably twist another order of magnitude out of it by
including leptokurtosis in the log-normal distributions. But for most
things economic measured in centuries or less, a good guess'timate
would be that most things have an average and deviation of the
marginal increments of 0.0004 and 0.02 per day, (which, interestingly,
has been constant since circa 2,000BCE when the Sumerians were setting
up derivatives/hedges with an IOU system documented in Cuneiform/clay
tablets, which exist to this day-at least so far,) and is optimal and
maximal.
The 0.0004/0.02 numbers gives, roughly, a 1 / sqrt (t) duration,
(close enough for t >> 1, and good enough for at least for pondering,)
deviation distribution over time and sqrt (t) magnitude of the chances
of an economic catastrophe, (and its constituent conflict/war,)
roughly equal to the Great Depression, (the GD of 1929, that is,) as a
benchmark of about once a millennia, or so, (probably about half as
bad for the 4'th century Roman Empire catastrophe, although we don't
have good numbers for it.)
The 0.0004/0.02 numbers model, very closely, stock pro forma for up to
a few centuries, (its between five and ten percent per year growth,
average,) of daily ticker returns. The 0.0004/0.02 number set is a
handy one to remember, (in point of fact, add one to the ratio, and
divide by two, and its the chances of an up tick tomorrow in about
anything economic; the optimal fraction of stuff to put at risk on
such a speculation is twice that, minus unity.) The Sumerians, (at
least in Uruk, Iraq,) were running very close to optimal on wheat and
barley IOU/hedges in the year 2002/2003BCE, (the clay tablets were
arranged in spreadsheet fashion, owner/amount/term, to account for
what was owed to whom, and preserved for posterity; there was
short/put speculation, too.)
So, blame margin calls on Holy Innana, Goddess of Uruk, (AKA, Venus.)
She started it all, when she stole wisdom from the Gods, who told her
she could never give it back.
Depending on who is telling the story, of course.
Archimedes Plutonium writes:
> Shame that no-one has ever given a History by science pattern, or even
> made an attempt at it. Shame that I am the first scientist to see that
> world history comes in huge pattern blocks. But then again this would
> be logical commonsense to happen because no-one before me had
> a world history perspective from science in that no-one had a
> Atom Totality theory with the mechanism of Superdeterminism.
> It is the Superdeterminism that not only hints of history as a huge
> block pattern but demands history be a block-like pattern. A pattern
> just as Galileo anticipated Newton's law of gravity because balls
> rolling down inclined plane are rythmically patterned because they
> follow the law of gravity. Likewise, history follows laws of physics
> in that history is also intricately patterned. And because history is
> so very much more complex than is balls rolling down inclined
> plane, that although complex and hard and difficult to decipher,
> nonetheless those patterns exist to the careful eye and prodding
> of a good mind.
>
--
John Conover, conover@email.rahul.net, http://www.johncon.com/