From: John Conover <email@example.com>
Subject: Re: Deming said, "in God we trust, all others bring data"
Date: Wed, 14 Aug 1996 02:47:10 -0700
So if the "Republican Show's" data is a "theory based on certain assumptions," then how about the Democrats. Well, Again referring to "Historical Tables: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1996, tables 1.2 and 2.2 for growth and revenue figures," available from: http://www.doc.gov/resources/ESA_info.html Economics and Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce, DOC or: gopher://sunny.stat-usa.gov:70/11/BudgetFY96 And in addition: http://www.doc.gov/BudgetFY97/index.html and: http://www.doc.gov/BudgetFY96/index.html and quoting the following paragraphs: "Growth is expected to pick up ... Interest-sensitive sectors, such as consumer durables and business equipment spending, are likely to be at the leading edge of the acceleration in response to the fall in long-term interest rates during 1995 and the surge in the stock market. On average, real GDP is forecast to increase 2.2 percent over the four quarters of 1996. During 1997-2002, real GDP is projected to rise 2.3 percent annually (the Administration's estimate of the economy's potential growth rate). Lower interest rates and smaller deficits are projected to increase investment and raise the trend growth in output per hour. Productivity in the nonfarm business sector had been growing at 1.1 percent per year on average since 1973, but it is projected to increase 1.2 percent annually over the next six years." They only missed the marginal GR by a factor of 2, (4.9 vs. 2.3 percent.) No problem. (Current projections are that the 2.3 percent is optimistic-actually, falling to closer to 2 percent flat.) John -- John Conover, firstname.lastname@example.org, http://www.johncon.com/