forwarded message from John Conover

From: John Conover <>
Subject: forwarded message from John Conover
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 1996 07:42:03 -0800

Well, China has been doing this for the last 5 years, or so. The
attached is typical over that period. Now, if the US continues at 2%
GDP growth, or so, and China continues at 10%, or so, for the next 15
years, or so, (call it in the first decade of the next century, or
so-my calculations show about 2007,) then China will become the
largest economic industrial power on the planet, and assume all of the
benefits of being such, from the US. (In 1950, the US contributed over
30% of the GDP. Today, it is under 20%.)

The US is the only country in the world that has a trade deficit with
China, at around a tenth of a trillion dollars, cumulative. In the
international trade game, China owes all other countries in the world
money-the US owes China money. Enough so, that China's international
trade situation is a solvent.

Maybe the world order has kind of changed. The third largest economy
in the world, China, does not have a blue water navy.

Think that is something? As another John's interesting little tidbits,
Argentina, traditionally, a military dictatorship, has about 600,000
Avon beauty consultants. That is larger than their standing military.

Maybe Francis Fukuyama[1], (Deputy Director of Planning for the US
State Department for many years,) was correct when he claimed that the
world paradigm has changed from one of asserting military presence to
one of asserting economic presence.


[1] "The End of History and the Last Man," Francis Fukuyama, Free
Press, New York, New York, 1992. The book is often cited within the
halls of power in DC, in the context of how do you run the US on only
20% of the world GDP? If there is a new world order, where/how does
the US make a place for itself in it?

------- start of forwarded message (RFC 934 encapsulation) -------
Message-ID: <"2UZ4v1.0.Ef.xTBUo"@netcom7>
From: John Conover <>
To: John Conover <>
Subject: China economy seen better in Q4 than Q3
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 1996 2:11:14 PST

         BEIJING, Oct 31 (Reuter) - China's economy is expected to
improve in the fourth quarter of 1996 compared with the third
quarter, the Securities Daily on Thursday quoted the information
centre of the State Economic and Trade Commission as saying.
         Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was forecast to
climb a year-on-year 10 percent to 2.340 trillion yuan ($282
billion), the newspaper said. GDP for the whole year was
expected to rise 9.8 percent to 6.910 trillion yuan.
         China's GDP grew by 10.2 percent in 1995.
         Officials have said they want to curb economic growth below
10 percent this year to keep the economy from overheating.
         The information centre forecast retail inflation at eight
percent in the fourth quarter and seven percent for the whole
year. Retail inflation was 14.8 percent last year.
         China's trade surplus is expected to total $8.0 billion for
the whole year, with exports rising 2.2 percent to $152 billion
and imports up nine percent to $144 billion, the centre said.
         Industrial output was expected to increase 13.5 percent to
1.880 trillion yuan in 1996 from last year, it said.
         Fixed asset investment would soar 19 percent to 2.380
trillion yuan for the whole year, the centre said.
         ($1 < 8.3 yuan)

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John Conover,,

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