From: John Conover <>
Subject: Re: WWII
Date: 16 Aug 1999 23:09:54 -0000 writes:
> On Mon, 16 Aug 1999 08:14:57 GMT, (Grinch) wrote:
> >
> >The Depression today actually is quite well understood by economic
> >historians, and not difficult at all to explain (with 50 years'
> >hindsight and data).
> >
> >For a quick & easy read see:
>    I'll not repeat the entire post but assume you have it and
>    saved it.
>    Oldnasty Grinch is to be thanked for an instructive post.
>    One point that always worries me:  the question of cause and effect.

That's a good point, Mason. If the economy is a sufficiently complex
system, (ie., fractal, NLDS, chaotic, etc.,) then cause and effect are
circularly self-referential, and can not be isolated-at least in the
context of a deterministic system where static equilibrium
methodologies (ie., macroeconomics paradigm,) are used.

Stochastic solutions are of little intellectual comfort.

For example, saying that in the century, there is a four sigma
certainty that a depression lasting at least a decade will occur-a
virtual certainty-is not comforting at all.


BTW, on the other hand, there is the same virtual certainty that an
economic expansion lasting at least a decade will occur, too. Since
that didn't happen prior to the current expansion, we might be
enjoying the "benefit" of the Great Depression. I guess its all in how
one looks at it. But its still of little comfort.


John Conover,,

Copyright © 1999 John Conover, All Rights Reserved.
Last modified: Sun Nov 14 00:01:49 PST 1999 $Id: 990816161007.3666.html,v 1.0 2002/02/12 19:54:06 conover Exp $
Valid HTML 4.0!