From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: WWII
Date: 16 Aug 1999 23:09:54 -0000
masonc@ix.netcom.com writes:
> On Mon, 16 Aug 1999 08:14:57 GMT, oldnasty@mindspring.com (Grinch) wrote:
> >
> >The Depression today actually is quite well understood by economic
> >historians, and not difficult at all to explain (with 50 years'
> >hindsight and data).
> >
> >For a quick & easy read see:
>
> I'll not repeat the entire post but assume you have it and
> saved it.
>
> Oldnasty Grinch is to be thanked for an instructive post.
>
> One point that always worries me: the question of cause and effect.
>
That's a good point, Mason. If the economy is a sufficiently complex
system, (ie., fractal, NLDS, chaotic, etc.,) then cause and effect are
circularly self-referential, and can not be isolated-at least in the
context of a deterministic system where static equilibrium
methodologies (ie., macroeconomics paradigm,) are used.
Stochastic solutions are of little intellectual comfort.
For example, saying that in the century, there is a four sigma
certainty that a depression lasting at least a decade will occur-a
virtual certainty-is not comforting at all.
John
BTW, on the other hand, there is the same virtual certainty that an
economic expansion lasting at least a decade will occur, too. Since
that didn't happen prior to the current expansion, we might be
enjoying the "benefit" of the Great Depression. I guess its all in how
one looks at it. But its still of little comfort.
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/