####################################################################### # # Evolution of the U.S. income distribution, as a log-normal # distribution, (from mean-variance analysis of US nominal GDP per # capita): # ####################################################################### # # Integrating the U.S. Income Distribution, 2010, (from U.S. Census # Survey of Household data) to about the mean value, (the empirical # annual mean income per capita is $39,791, the median is $19,658, # and, the mode is $4,798, from ~/us.income.distribution.gp, which is # in real dollars): # # From: # # http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution # # Mean = exp (u + (s^2 / 2)) # Median = exp (u) # Mode = exp (u - s^2) # # Where u is the offset of the log-normal distribution, and s the # standard deviation, and obtaining the cumulative of the # us.income.distribution file. # tsintegrate -t us.income.distribution | tail -1 87013.84376198585731153791 0.000504 # # The cumulative of the us.income.distribution: # tsintegrate -t us.income.distribution | tsmath -t -d 0.000504 966.82263473903116797524 0.035714 . . . 39639.53465977333008075120 0.839286 . . . 87013.84376198585731153791 1.000000 # # Or, empirically, 83.9% of incomes are less than the mean, and, the # mean is about the same for the empirical and theoretical value. # # And, in calc(1), the cumulative to the mean for the theoretical: # ; u = ln (19658) ; s = sqrt (2 * (ln (39791) - u)) ; (1/2) + (1/2) * erf ((ln (39791) - u) / (sqrt (2 * (s^2)))) 0.72365059433417996312 # # Or, theoretically, about 72.3% of incomes should be less than the # mean; meaning the empirical has 11.6% more of the population than # the theoretical. # # And, the empirical cumulative of incomes greater than # $87013.84376198585731153791 is 0.000009, (i.e., about 1 in 100,000). # # From calc(1): # ; (1/2) + (1/2) * erf ((ln (87013.84376198585731153791) - u) / \ (sqrt (2 * (s^2)))) 0.89479911708583191039 # # which is a theoretical excess of the cumulative of about 11%, # compared with an empirical cumulative that is insignificant; i.e., # the difference between the theoretical and empirical to the mean is # almost the same as the difference between the theoretical and # empirical beyond the mean, with different signs. # ####################################################################### # # The mean-variance analysis of the evolution of the U.S. Income # Distribution, 1790 to 2010: # # (Note that the 2010 income distribution is in nominal 2010 US # dollars, so nominal dollar history of the US GDP per capita must be # used; additionally, the median-to calculate the gain-of US GDP per # capita from 1790 to 2010 is unknown, meaning that the ratios, of # both the theoretical and empirical values of the mean and the median # will be compared for the evolution of the US GDP per capita.) # tsfraction us.nominal.gdp.capita.1790-2010 | tsrms -p 0.085756 # tsfraction us.nominal.gdp.capita.1790-2010 | tsavg -p 0.034815 # # US GDP per capita variance: # ; 0.085756^2 - 0.034815^2 0.006142007311 # # Time interval: # ; 2010 - 1790 220 # # Log-normal standard deviation, s: # ; sqrt (0.006142007311) * sqrt (220) 1.16242918426027140075 # # Mean / Median, exp (s^2 / 2): # ; exp (1.16242918426027140075^2 / 2) 1.96525263445529821419 # # as a theoretical number. As an empirical number: # ; 39791 / 19658 2.02416319055855122596 # # Mode / Median = exp (- s^2): # ; exp (- 1.16242918426027140075^2) 0.25891858549408337365 # # as a theoretical number. As an empirical number: # ; 4798 / 19658 0.24407365957879743616