# # Note that the file, world.gdp.capita.10000BCE-2000.fraction-a, is # the fractional increase in the GDP per capita, (and can have # negative numbers,) and, if it contained data from a perfect # exponential function would be a time series of constant numbers. # # The question is, since the GDP per capita since 1600 has "noise," is # whether the zero growth from 1950 to 2000 is "noise," in an # exponential growth of the world GDP per capita, or the top of a # logistic/parabolic function? # # The last 9 elements of the file, # world.gdp.capita.10000BCE-2000.fraction-a, contain the data from # 1600 through 2000: # # tsscalederivative world.gdp.capita.10000BCE-2000.fraction-a | tail -9 | tsavg -p # 0.000057 # tsscalederivative world.gdp.capita.10000BCE-2000.fraction-a | tail -9 | tsmath -t -s 0.000057 | tsrms -p # 0.000100 # tsscalederivative world.gdp.capita.10000BCE-2000.fraction-a | tail -9 | tsmath -t -s 0.000057 | tail -1 # -0.000059 ; 0.000059 / 0.000100 ; 0.59 # sigma 0.59 # 0.277595324753477368 # # The standard error is 1 / sqrt (9) = 1 / 3, so there is a 95% chance # that the chance of the world GDP per capita is a logistic/parabolic # function is between 0.277595324753477368 - (1 / 3) = # -0.05573800857985596533, and, 0.277595324753477368 + (1 / 3) = # 0.61092865808681070133. # # Meaning, there is about a 72% chance, (+/- 33% standard error,) that # the world GDP per capita is an exponential function instead of a # logistic parabolic function-at least for the foreseeable future.