From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>

Subject: Re: Recessions in the past century

Date: 13 Mar 2001 01:19:32 GMT

I guess the reason for the question was to get an idea of how long recessions last. If so, assuming Black-Scholes-Merton paradigm as a model, the probability that a recession will last at least y many years is about 1 / sqrt (y). BSM seems to be a fairly useful model for such things, see: http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/990215192020.29398.html for a graph of the distributions of fluctuations in the USGDP since 1940, which are overlayed on erf (1 / sqrt (y)), (which is about 1 / sqrt (y) for y >> 1.) John BTW, there is a graph of the magnitudes of the fluctuations in the USGDP since 1940 at: http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/990905134341.23530.html using the same data set. Its in close agreement with BSM, too-which would indicate a sqrt (y) type of function. David Cross writes: > "Atanu Dey"; wrote in message > news:98jpn1$2or$1@agate.berkeley.edu... > > I have a question for the gurus over here. What has been the longest > > period in the past century that the US has not seen a recession? > > > > Thanks for any references or responses. > > The 1920s, 1960s and 1990s. More specifically, from 1921 to 1929, 1961 to > 1970, and 1991/2 to 1999/2000. > > I will sit corrected if anyone can give better data than what I've given > here. :) > -- John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/

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