From: John Conover <email@example.com>
Subject: vnunet.com [Linux] Linux: long-term commitment or a flash in the pan?
Date: 23 Feb 2000 05:45:45 -0000
Gartner Group's take on acceptance of Linux. A bit of back-peddling. Note: "... Linux outside its core areas of ecommerce and web servers ..." Considering ecommerce as a core application of Linux is a bit unusual-ecommerce is owned by Sun and IBM's AIX. At any rate, their assessment that Linux could be a fluke, and this year will tell the difference agrees pretty well with the theory of lock-in/stochastic/path-dependency. If it is assumed that February, 1997, was when the Linux bubble started, then there is a 50/50 chance that it will last until mid 2001 on shear luck alone. Any longer than that, and the chances that it is a fluke deteriorate at a 1 / sqrt (t) scenario. The expansions and contractions of the electronics industry seems to follow the 1 / sqrt (t) scenario very well. An analysis, with comparative empirical and theoretical graphs is at: http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014184454.18095.html http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014210544.18525.html http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014222823.18931.html http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014233807.19309.html John http://www.vnunet.com/Features/107058 -- John Conover, firstname.lastname@example.org, http://www.johncon.com/