[Linux] Linux: long-term commitment or a flash in the pan?

From: John Conover <>
Subject: [Linux] Linux: long-term commitment or a flash in the pan?
Date: 23 Feb 2000 05:45:45 -0000

Gartner Group's take on acceptance of Linux. A bit of
back-peddling. Note:

   "... Linux outside its core areas of ecommerce and web servers ..."

Considering ecommerce as a core application of Linux is a bit
unusual-ecommerce is owned by Sun and IBM's AIX.

At any rate, their assessment that Linux could be a fluke, and this
year will tell the difference agrees pretty well with the theory of

If it is assumed that February, 1997, was when the Linux bubble
started, then there is a 50/50 chance that it will last until mid 2001
on shear luck alone. Any longer than that, and the chances that it is
a fluke deteriorate at a 1 / sqrt (t) scenario.

The expansions and contractions of the electronics industry seems to
follow the 1 / sqrt (t) scenario very well. An analysis, with
comparative empirical and theoretical graphs is at:



John Conover,,

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